There Was No Doubt About It

A Pittsburgh Pirates Blog

Bucco Bloggers Predict the 2nd Half, 2014 Edition


07.16.14 Posted by

Last year we asked a number of prominent Pirates bloggers (and fine upstanding young algorithms), at the All-Star break, to predict the Pirates’ win total. Most came pretty close, but the consensus/average undershot the total by 2-3. The only person/algorithm to nail the total was Jim Rosati of North Side Notch, and his prediction was also the highest.

So, we decided to do this again. And I think it’s safe to say that the degree of difficulty is higher. Last year the margin the Bucs had racked up by the break made a low-90s win total almost a foregone conclusion, but everyone was pretty clearheaded about the likelihood of some second-half regression.

This year, on the other hand, has defied narrative at almost every turn. From a slow start to a tremendously strong two months, to performing as well or better even after key injuries. An inexplicable number of players have stepped up to outperform the people they replaced, but some of them might be doing it with smoke and mirrors. There are a lot of major variables at play.

Bloggers

Algorithms


84.7Average

Note that there’s a slightly larger range this time among the bloggers, and that Rosati is once again the highest (though tied with a couple of others). Also worth noting, but not evident from the table above: of the six non-TWNDAI bloggers listed above, five gave the exact same win prediction they had in the preseason.

The thing I find most encouraging is that the Bucs are on pace for 84 wins even with all the injuries, and with that horrid start, so they can afford to play a bit worse than they have been the last couple of months and still finish in the high 80s, which is probably what they’ll need to snag a playoff spot.


Filed under: Predictions!