Bucco Bloggers Predict the 2nd Half, 2016 Edition
07.15.16 Posted by Chris
Hey, it’s this again.
For the fourth straight year, we’re asking prominent Pirate bloggers, over the All-Star break, to predict the Pirates’ win total at the end of the season. Tim and I make our own predictions, and we compare it to a few algorithms, and then see who comes out on top.
In 2013, Jim Rosati of North Side Notch was the only one to nail the final total (94). In 2014, Rosati tied with Brian McElhinny of Raise the Jolly Roger, with both coming within two of the final total. And last year, only Rich of This is Getting Old correctly predicted at the break that the Bucs would win 98 games.
If we took this poll a couple of weeks ago, it’s fair to say these predictions would be a good deal less optimistic, and I think more than one would’ve been sub-.500. But for the second year in a row the Bucs enter the break on a hot streak, and with a big series win against the division leader.
Here are the predictions:
- 89Cory, Three Rivers Blog
- 89Pat Lackey, WHYGAVS
- 91Rich, This Is Getting Old
- 88James Santelli, Pirates Prospects
- 89Jim Rosati, North Side Notch
- 88Brian McElhinny, Raise the Jolly Roger
- 86Tim (this blog)
- 87Chris (this blog)
87 (Blogs: 88.4, Skynet: 83.7)Average
Things of note:
- The average algorithm prediction is almost exactly in line with the Pirates’ current win pace
- The most optimistic algorithm prediction is still lower than the most pessimistic blogger prediction.
- The algorithms and bloggers were virtually identical in 2013, but the bloggers have won the last two years, once by more than two full wins on average.
Related to that last point, there’s been some speculation, based on the last few years, as to whether or not projection systems have trouble accounting for things like defense, defensive shifts, teams that emphasize contact hitting, or exceptionally good bullpens, given that both the Pirates and Royals keep outperforming their projections. Hopefully that’s the case here.
Filed under: Predictions!